2026 races ranked by probability of a Democratic win

Updated Friday October 30, 2026, 6:00 AM EDT. Regenerated every morning.

Each list runs from the most to the least likely Democratic win, so a row's rank is the number of races Democrats win if they take every race down to it. model is the Race to the WH forecast, which incorporates the polls (its site says “Last Updated on Oct 29, 4:19 PM ET”). market is the Kalshi prediction-market price for a Democratic win when the page was generated. Rows are sorted by model; the dashed line marks p = 0.5.

Senate (35 races)

Democrats hold 34 seats not on the ballot and need 51 (the Vice President is a Republican), so the first 17 races: the starred line.

#	State	Democrat	Republican	model	market
1	Illinois	Juliana Stratton	Don Tracy	99.7%	98.2%
2	Massachusetts	Ed Markey	John Deaton	99.7%	98.4%
3	New Mexico	Ben Ray Luján	Larry Marker	99.7%	98.6%
4	Rhode Island	Jack Reed	Ray McKay	99.6%	99.0%
5	Colorado	John Hickenlooper	Mark Baisley	99.2%	98.2%
6	Oregon	Jeff Merkley	David Smith	99.2%	98.2%
7	Delaware	Chris Coons	Michael Katz	99.1%	98.6%
8	Virginia	Mark Warner	Bert Mizusawa	98.7%	98.4%
9	Georgia	Jon Ossoff	Mike Collins	98.4%	96.4%
10	New Jersey	Cory Booker	Justin Murphy	98.0%	97.5%
11	Minnesota	Peggy Flanagan	Michele Tafoya	96.3%	90.1%
12	North Carolina	Roy Cooper	Michael Whatley	95.0%	96.6%
13	New Hampshire	Chris Pappas	John Sununu	91.6%	91.3%
14	Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed	Mike Rogers	89.9%	75.5%
15	Texas	James Talarico	Ken Paxton	78.6%	69.5%
16	Maine	Troy Jackson	Susan Collins	71.7%	63.5%
17	Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Jon Husted	70.6%	69.5%
★ Democratic majority if every race above is won
18	Iowa	Josh Turek	Ashley Hinson	60.8%	46.5%
19	Alaska	Mary Peltola	Dan Sullivan	58.9%	67.5%
p = 0.5
20	Kansas	Adam Hamilton	Roger Marshall	46.0%	48.5%
21	South Carolina	Annie Andrews	Darline Graham	34.4%	27.5%
22	Florida	Angie Nixon	Ashley Moody	15.4%	10.5%
23	Louisiana	Jamie Davis	Julia Letlow	12.4%	10.5%
24	Mississippi	Scott Colom	Cindy Hyde-Smith	11.8%	11.5%
25	South Dakota	Brian Bengs	Mike Rounds	9.7%	0.5%
26	Alabama	Everett Wess	Barry Moore	4.1%	1.9%
27	Idaho	Todd Achilles	Jim Risch	1.4%	0.1%
28	Kentucky	Charles Booker	Andy Barr	1.1%	3.5%
29	Wyoming	James Byrd	Harriet Hageman	1.1%	1.0%
30	Tennessee	Marquita Bradshaw	Bill Hagerty	0.9%	3.5%
31	Arkansas	Hallie Shoffner	Tom Cotton	0.7%	5.8%
32	West Virginia	Rachel Anderson	Shelley Moore Capito	0.6%	2.0%
33	Oklahoma	Jasmine Thomas	Kevin Hern	0.5%	2.7%
34	Montana	(no Democrat; Ind. Seth Bodnar 23.7%)	Kurt Alme	0.0%	0.5%
35	Nebraska	(no Democrat; Ind. Dan Osborn 32.3%)	Pete Ricketts	0.0%	0.5%

House, ranks 200-260 of 435

Democrats need 218 seats, so the first 218 races: the starred line. The rank of a row is the number of seats Democrats hold if they win every race down to it.

Ranks 1-199 and 261-435 are omitted. Overall, 200 districts have p < 0.5 and 235 have p ≥ 0.5 (model: Democrats projected to win 235, ranks 1-235). Seat: incumbent party, or open with the party that holds it. Percentages after a name are that candidate's own chance where a district has two candidates of the same party.

#	Dist.	Seat	Candidates	model	market
200	NY-3	D inc	Tom Suozzi (D 90%) vs Mike LiPetri (R 10%)	89.5%	90.3%
201	CA-13	D inc	Adam Gray (D 89%) vs Kevin Lincoln (R 11%)	89.3%	93.8%
202	NM-2	D inc	Gabe Vasquez (D 89%) vs Greg Cunningham (R 11%)	88.9%	92.3%
203	NH-1	open D	Stefany Shaheen (D 88%) vs Anthony DiLorenzo (R 12%)	88.4%	94.9%
204	NJ-7	R inc	Rebecca Bennett (D 88%) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (R 12%)	87.9%	93.2%
205	NV-1	D inc	Dina Titus (D 88%) vs Carrie Buck (R 12%)	87.5%	95.4%
206	CA-6	R inc	Richard Pan (D 87%) vs Kevin Kiley (I 13%)	87.2%	94.3%
207	AZ-6	R inc	JoAnna Mendoza (D 86%) vs Juan Ciscomani (R 14%)	86.1%	89.0%
208	NC-11	open R	Jamie Ager (D 84%) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R 16%)	83.9%	85.5%
209	VA-2	R inc	Elaine Luria (D 84%) vs Jen Kiggans (R 16%)	83.6%	90.7%
210	CA-48	open R	Marni von Wilpert (D 83%) vs Jim Desmond (R 17%)	83.4%	93.1%
211	OH-9	D inc	Marcy Kaptur (D 83%) vs Derek Merrin (R 17%)	83.0%	77.5%
212	WA-3	D inc	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D 82%) vs John Braun (R 18%)	82.0%	89.5%
213	FL-25	D inc	Jared Moskowitz (D 81%) vs Scott Singer (R 19%)	81.2%	80.5%
214	FL-14	D inc	Kathy Castor (D 81%) vs Mike Beltran (R 19%)	80.7%	70.5%
215	PA-7	R inc	Bob Brooks (D 80%) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R 20%)	80.3%	85.5%
216	NC-1	D inc	Don Davis (D 79%) vs Laurie Buckhout (R 21%)	79.4%	83.5%
217	CA-22	R inc	Randy Villegas (D 79%) vs David Valadao (R 21%)	78.9%	89.5%
218	CO-8	R inc	Manny Rutinel (D 79%) vs Gabe Evans (R 21%)	78.7%	85.5%
★ Democratic majority if every race above is won
219	PA-8	R inc	Paige Cognetti (D 70%) vs Rob Bresnahan (R 30%)	69.8%	88.5%
220	IA-3	R inc	Sarah Trone Garriott (D 69%) vs Zach Nunn (R 31%)	69.0%	85.5%
221	MI-7	R inc	William Lawrence (D 68%) vs Tom Barrett (R 32%)	67.8%	75.5%
222	AZ-1	open R	Amish Shah (D 68%) vs Jay Feely (R 32%)	67.6%	79.5%
223	NY-17	R inc	Cait Conley (D 64%) vs Mike Lawler (R 36%)	64.5%	61.5%
224	FL-22	open D	Pia Dandiya (D 64%) vs Casey Askar (R 36%)	63.7%	70.5%
225	PA-10	R inc	Janelle Stelson (D 63%) vs Scott Perry (R 37%)	62.9%	81.5%
226	IA-1	R inc	Christina Bohannan (D 62%) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R 38%)	62.2%	91.2%
227	WI-3	R inc	Rebecca Cooke (D 61%) vs Derrick Van Orden (R 39%)	61.3%	86.5%
228	TX-35	open D	Johnny C. Garcia (D 60%) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R 40%)	60.1%	71.5%
229	IA-2	open R	Lindsay James (D 54%) vs Joe Mitchell (R 46%)	53.9%	72.5%
230	VA-1	R inc	Shannon Taylor (D 52%) vs Rob Wittman (R 48%)	52.5%	64.5%
231	MT-1	open R	Sam Forstag (D 52%) vs Aaron Flint (R 48%)	52.0%	55.5%
232	KY-6	open R	Zach Dembo (D 51%) vs Ralph Alvarado (R 49%)	51.1%	55.5%
233	FL-9	D inc	Darren Soto (D 50%) vs Dan Green (R 50%)	50.1%	33.5%
234	MO-2	R inc	Fred Wellman (D 50%) vs Ann Wagner (R 50%)	50.1%	35.5%
235	TX-23	open R	Katy Padilla Stout (D 50%) vs Brandon Herrera (R 50%)	50.1%	43.5%
p = 0.5
236	TX-34	D inc	Vicente Gonzalez (D 47%) vs Eric Flores (R 53%)	47.4%	88.5%
237	MI-10	open R	Christina Hines (D 46%) vs Michael Bouchard Jr. (R 54%)	46.2%	71.5%
238	PA-1	R inc	Bob Harvie (D 42%) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R 58%)	41.9%	52.5%
239	SC-1	open R	Nancy S. Lacore (D 42%) vs Smith (R 58%)	41.8%	46.5%
240	MI-4	R inc	Sean McCann (D 38%) vs Bill Huizenga (R 62%)	38.4%	62.5%
241	NY-21	open R	Blake Gendebien (D 38%) vs Anthony Constantino (R 62%)	38.0%	34.5%
242	TX-15	R inc	Bobby Pulido (D 38%) vs Monica De La Cruz (R 62%)	38.0%	87.5%
243	MN-1	R inc	Jake Johnson (D 36%) vs Brad Finstad (R 64%)	36.5%	39.5%
244	FL-7	open R	Bale Dalton (D 36%) vs Ryan Elijah (R 64%)	35.9%	28.0%
245	OH-7	R inc	Brian Poindexter (D 35%) vs Max Miller (R 65%)	35.4%	84.5%
246	ME-2	open D	Matt Dunlap (D 35%) vs Paul LePage (R 65%)	34.7%	43.5%
247	CO-5	R inc	Jessica Killin (D 34%) vs Jeff Crank (R 66%)	34.5%	43.5%
248	TN-9	open D	Justin J. Pearson (D 28%) vs Brent Taylor (R 72%)	28.0%	16.0%
249	NV-2	open R	Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D 24%) vs David Flippo (R 76%)	23.9%	40.5%
250	TN-5	open R	Chaz Molder (D 22%) vs Charlie Hatcher (R 78%)	21.6%	10.5%
251	AZ-2	R inc	Jonathan Nez (D 21%) vs Eli Crane (R 79%)	20.8%	33.5%
252	FL-16	open R	Kelly Kirschner (D 20%) vs Sydney Gruters (R 80%)	19.7%	23.5%
253	WI-1	R inc	Mitchell Berman (D 19%) vs Bryan Steil (R 81%)	19.1%	49.5%
254	NY-1	R inc	Chris Gallant (D 18%) vs Nick LaLota (R 82%)	18.2%	21.5%
255	VA-5	R inc	Tom Perriello (D 18%) vs John McGuire (R 82%)	18.2%	41.5%
256	AL-2	D inc	Shomari Figures (D 17%) vs Rhett Marques (R 83%)	16.7%	43.5%
257	FL-2	open R	Amanda Green (D 16%) vs Austin Rogers (R 84%)	15.6%	9.0%
258	CO-4	R inc	Eileen Laubacher (D 15%) vs Lauren Boebert (R 85%)	15.0%	36.5%
259	OH-10	R inc	Kristina Knickerbocker (D 14%) vs Mike Turner (R 86%)	13.7%	30.5%
260	OH-15	R inc	Don Leonard (D 14%) vs Mike Carey (R 86%)	13.6%	37.0%

Governors (36 races)

Democrats hold 6 governorships not on the ballot and need 26 of 50, so the first 20 races: the starred line.

#	State	Democrat	Republican	model	market
1	California	Xavier Becerra	Steve Hilton	99.9%	96.4%
2	Connecticut	Ned Lamont	Ryan Fazio	99.9%	96.4%
3	Pennsylvania	Josh Shapiro	Stacy Garrity	99.9%	97.6%
4	Maryland	Wes Moore	Dan Cox	99.6%	97.8%
5	Massachusetts	Maura Healey	Michael Minogue	99.6%	96.5%
6	Hawaii	Josh Green	Gary Cordery	99.4%	98.3%
7	Illinois	J.B. Pritzker	Darren Bailey	99.4%	97.7%
8	New York	Kathy Hochul	Bruce Blakeman	99.3%	95.8%
9	Colorado	Phil Weiser	Victor Marx	94.3%	96.4%
10	Rhode Island	Helena Foulkes	Aaron Guckian	93.4%	95.6%
11	Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Lisa Demuth	91.0%	96.2%
12	Maine	Hannah Pingree	Robert Charles	90.9%	95.4%
13	Iowa	Rob Sand	Zach Lahn	89.2%	84.5%
14	Michigan	Jocelyn Benson	John James	85.1%	93.5%
15	New Mexico	Deb Haaland	Gregg Hull	84.4%	94.4%
16	Arizona	Katie Hobbs	Andy Biggs	84.3%	92.1%
17	Alaska	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	Bernadette Wilson	78.0%	88.8%
18	Ohio	Amy Acton	Vivek Ramaswamy	77.8%	81.5%
19	Oregon	Tina Kotek	Christine Drazan	71.7%	79.5%
20	Wisconsin	David Crowley	Tom Tiffany	66.1%	83.5%
★ Democratic majority if every race above is won
p = 0.5
21	Georgia	Keisha Lance Bottoms	Rick Jackson	36.3%	62.5%
22	Nevada	Aaron Ford	Joseph Lombardo	36.1%	77.5%
23	Kansas	Cindy Holscher	Ty Masterson	26.5%	23.5%
24	Nebraska	Lynne Walz	Jim Pillen	23.6%	16.5%
25	Texas	Gina Hinojosa	Greg Abbott	23.4%	37.5%
26	Vermont	Amanda Janoo	Phil Scott	21.3%	24.5%
27	Florida	David Jolly	Byron Donalds	16.8%	30.5%
28	Alabama	Doug Jones	Tommy Tuberville	11.0%	7.1%
29	South Carolina	Jermaine Johnson	Alan Wilson	10.2%	7.4%
30	Oklahoma	Cyndi Munson	Mike Mazzei	9.1%	10.5%
31	New Hampshire	Cindy Warmington	Kelly Ayotte	6.9%	7.7%
32	South Dakota	Daniel Ahlers	Larry Rhoden	6.4%	2.4%
33	Tennessee	Jerri Green	Marsha Blackburn	5.8%	5.7%
34	Wyoming	Ken Casner	Eric Barlow	2.7%	1.7%
35	Idaho	Terri Pickens	Brad Little	1.7%	2.6%
36	Arkansas	Fredrick Love	Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.8%	2.0%